Washington -- The U.S. military death toll in Iraq topped 1,000 Tuesday, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and independent analysts predicted the casualty situation is likely to worsen in the next several months as U.S. and Iraqi elections approach.
The latest spate of military deaths, which occurred in fighting or roadside bombings in and around Baghdad on Tuesday and early today, raised the number of Americans killed to 1,003 since President Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. All but 139 of those died since the president declared the end of major combat in May 2003.
The number of Americans wounded has almost reached 7,000 and continues to mount steadily.
Combined, the statistics show that Iraq has become the most deadly overseas U.S. military operation since the Vietnam War.
Some analysts say the U.S. effort is floundering, while others see progress as the interim government of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi asserts control and more Iraqi security forces are trained and armed to operate alongside the 140,000 U.S. forces and the 27,000 from 31 other nations.
It's unclear what impact the rising death toll in Iraq will have on the Nov. 2 presidential election between Bush and his Democratic rival, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who voted for the war but has criticized Bush's conduct of the Iraqi operation. Kerry promises a significant troop reduction within his first six months in office, but he hasn't spelled out what size that might be.
Perhaps even more significant in terms of stepped-up fighting in Iraq is the plan for Iraqis to elect a national assembly in January 2005 as part of the post-invasion return to complete sovereignty.
At a Pentagon press conference, Rumsfeld conceded that he expects violence to increase in the run-up to the two elections. He predicted a "backlash from those who hope we'll conclude the sacrifice isn't worth it.'' But he said Americans won't flinch. "Our enemies underestimate us,'' he added.
He said insurgents are fixated on the elections because they remind them "how close they are to losing their opportunities'' to destabilize Iraq and get the United States to pull out of Iraq.
Rumsfeld also tried to show that the U.S. military death toll in Iraq is part of a broader war against Islamic terrorists, saying the civilized world has long passed the 1,000th death at the hands of terrorists. "Sept. 11th was not the beginning,'' he added. "International terrorists declared war on the civilized world long ago.''
Kerry issued a statement after confirmation of the 1,000th death. "Today marks a tragic milestone in the war in Iraq,'' he said. "We must meet our sacred obligation to all our troops to do all we can to make the right decisions in Iraq so that we can bring them home as soon as possible."
The civilian death toll also has risen rapidly. The Iraq Body Project, a London-based research group of academics and journalists, estimates that 11,793 to 13,802 Iraqi civilians had been killed in the fighting through Tuesday.
Independent analysts participating in a seminar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington agreed that U.S. forces Iraq are entering a particularly dangerous period.
"The next phase will be the run-up to the elections,'' retired Army Col. Robert Killibrew, a private consultant on defense issues, said Tuesday. "The insurgents will have to stage an offensive ... keyed to influence the U.S. election. That's a no-brainer. We can expect it to continue up to the election.''
After the Nov. 2 election, Killibrew added, the anti-American insurgents will continue their stepped-up campaign tied to the Iraqi election. If the Iraqi elections go ahead as scheduled, the Allawi government and its U.S. allies presumably will have to deal first with insurgent control of such cities as Najaf and Fallujah and the vast Sadr City section of Baghdad. That could lead to heavy fighting unless Allawi and such other Iraqi leaders as Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani can work out nonviolent solutions, as al-Sistani did at least temporarily in Najaf last month.
And even after the elections, Killibrew said he fears a civil war in Iraq as Islamic fundamentalists try to prevent the establishment of a secular, popularly elected government.
Other analysts said the situation is deteriorating in Iraq. "It's been a long, hot, ugly summer in Iraq. Things are getting worse,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, military analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He said that while Allawi has earned praise for showing independence from U.S. forces since he took office in June, the country's economy continues to stagger, and the unemployment estimate ranges from 30 to 60 percent.
Crime remains a problem for Iraqis, feeding feelings of insecurity, and the insurgents have changed their tactics and apparently grown in number.
O'Hanlon said U.S. officials admit that their estimate of the number of insurgents has grown, from an early figure of 5,000 to 20,000 today.
O'Hanlon, a Democrat, predicted a long, hard slog in Iraq no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election in November.
"I don't think we're in for a strategic defeat,'' he said. "But we'll likely muddle by for two, three or four years until the Iraqi civil war is settled. We'll likely leave behind one of the most violent countries in the region.''
A more optimistic view came from retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the Army. Keane was in Iraq last month to assess operations for the Pentagon. He said the situation is bad only in spots, mainly in the so-called Sunni Triangle of central Iraq where much of the fighting takes place.
"The sense of normalcy would astound you,'' said Keane, describing crowded marketplaces and traffic jams in many cities.
"I came back much more encouraged than I thought I would be,'' said Keane, praising Allawi, U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte and the U.S. commander, Gen. George Casey. Eliot Cohen, a professor of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University, said he doesn't expect news of the 1,000th U.S. death to affect U.S. opinion of the war. "American society has shown a remarkable willingness to sustain casualties. ... To the extent people have turned against the war, it's because of revulsion against incompetence and defeats,'' Cohen said.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- War and death The Iraq death toll marks the first time U.S. war deaths have topped 1,000 since the Vietnam War. The first U.S. death in Indochina came in 1957. The death toll reached 1,000 during the first week of November 1965 and eventually grew to 58,209.
-- U.S. death toll in Iraq: 1,003.
-- Other coalition forces' deaths: 131
-- U.S. forces wounded: 6,916
-- Iraqi civilian deaths: Estimate of 11,793-13,802**
-- U.S. death toll in Afghanistan: 133
**Estimate is by the Iraq Body Project, a British research organization of scholars and journalists that is recognized as providing a reliable estimate of civilian casualties in the Iraq war.
Sources: Defense Department statistics, www.icasualties.org, wwwiraqbodycount.net, Chronicle research.
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Grim milestone: Toll tops 1,000
RUMSFELD PREDICTION: U.S. casualties to rise before elections
Edward Epstein, Chronicle Washington Bureau
Wednesday, September 8, 2004
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Washington -- The U.S. military death toll in Iraq topped 1,000 Tuesday, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and independent analysts predicted the casualty situation is likely to worsen in the next several months as U.S. and Iraqi elections approach.
The latest spate of military deaths, which occurred in fighting or roadside bombings in and around Baghdad on Tuesday and early today, raised the number of Americans killed to 1,003 since President Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. All but 139 of those died since the president declared the end of major combat in May 2003.
The number of Americans wounded has almost reached 7,000 and continues to mount steadily.
Combined, the statistics show that Iraq has become the most deadly overseas U.S. military operation since the Vietnam War.
Some analysts say the U.S. effort is floundering, while others see progress as the interim government of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi asserts control and more Iraqi security forces are trained and armed to operate alongside the 140,000 U.S. forces and the 27,000 from 31 other nations.
It's unclear what impact the rising death toll in Iraq will have on the Nov. 2 presidential election between Bush and his Democratic rival, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who voted for the war but has criticized Bush's conduct of the Iraqi operation. Kerry promises a significant troop reduction within his first six months in office, but he hasn't spelled out what size that might be.
Perhaps even more significant in terms of stepped-up fighting in Iraq is the plan for Iraqis to elect a national assembly in January 2005 as part of the post-invasion return to complete sovereignty.
At a Pentagon press conference, Rumsfeld conceded that he expects violence to increase in the run-up to the two elections. He predicted a "backlash from those who hope we'll conclude the sacrifice isn't worth it.'' But he said Americans won't flinch. "Our enemies underestimate us,'' he added.
He said insurgents are fixated on the elections because they remind them "how close they are to losing their opportunities'' to destabilize Iraq and get the United States to pull out of Iraq.
Rumsfeld also tried to show that the U.S. military death toll in Iraq is part of a broader war against Islamic terrorists, saying the civilized world has long passed the 1,000th death at the hands of terrorists. "Sept. 11th was not the beginning,'' he added. "International terrorists declared war on the civilized world long ago.''
Kerry issued a statement after confirmation of the 1,000th death. "Today marks a tragic milestone in the war in Iraq,'' he said. "We must meet our sacred obligation to all our troops to do all we can to make the right decisions in Iraq so that we can bring them home as soon as possible."
The civilian death toll also has risen rapidly. The Iraq Body Project, a London-based research group of academics and journalists, estimates that 11,793 to 13,802 Iraqi civilians had been killed in the fighting through Tuesday.
Independent analysts participating in a seminar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington agreed that U.S. forces Iraq are entering a particularly dangerous period.
"The next phase will be the run-up to the elections,'' retired Army Col. Robert Killibrew, a private consultant on defense issues, said Tuesday. "The insurgents will have to stage an offensive ... keyed to influence the U.S. election. That's a no-brainer. We can expect it to continue up to the election.''
After the Nov. 2 election, Killibrew added, the anti-American insurgents will continue their stepped-up campaign tied to the Iraqi election. If the Iraqi elections go ahead as scheduled, the Allawi government and its U.S. allies presumably will have to deal first with insurgent control of such cities as Najaf and Fallujah and the vast Sadr City section of Baghdad. That could lead to heavy fighting unless Allawi and such other Iraqi leaders as Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani can work out nonviolent solutions, as al-Sistani did at least temporarily in Najaf last month.
And even after the elections, Killibrew said he fears a civil war in Iraq as Islamic fundamentalists try to prevent the establishment of a secular, popularly elected government.
Other analysts said the situation is deteriorating in Iraq. "It's been a long, hot, ugly summer in Iraq. Things are getting worse,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, military analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He said that while Allawi has earned praise for showing independence from U.S. forces since he took office in June, the country's economy continues to stagger, and the unemployment estimate ranges from 30 to 60 percent.
Crime remains a problem for Iraqis, feeding feelings of insecurity, and the insurgents have changed their tactics and apparently grown in number.
O'Hanlon said U.S. officials admit that their estimate of the number of insurgents has grown, from an early figure of 5,000 to 20,000 today.
O'Hanlon, a Democrat, predicted a long, hard slog in Iraq no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election in November.
"I don't think we're in for a strategic defeat,'' he said. "But we'll likely muddle by for two, three or four years until the Iraqi civil war is settled. We'll likely leave behind one of the most violent countries in the region.''
A more optimistic view came from retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the Army. Keane was in Iraq last month to assess operations for the Pentagon. He said the situation is bad only in spots, mainly in the so-called Sunni Triangle of central Iraq where much of the fighting takes place.
"The sense of normalcy would astound you,'' said Keane, describing crowded marketplaces and traffic jams in many cities.
"I came back much more encouraged than I thought I would be,'' said Keane, praising Allawi, U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte and the U.S. commander, Gen. George Casey. Eliot Cohen, a professor of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University, said he doesn't expect news of the 1,000th U.S. death to affect U.S. opinion of the war. "American society has shown a remarkable willingness to sustain casualties. ... To the extent people have turned against the war, it's because of revulsion against incompetence and defeats,'' Cohen said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
War and death
The Iraq death toll marks the first time U.S. war deaths have topped 1,000 since the Vietnam War. The first U.S. death in Indochina came in 1957. The death toll reached 1,000 during the first week of November 1965 and eventually grew to 58,209.
-- U.S. death toll in Iraq: 1,003.
-- Other coalition forces' deaths: 131
-- U.S. forces wounded: 6,916
-- Iraqi civilian deaths: Estimate of 11,793-13,802**
-- U.S. death toll in Afghanistan: 133
**Estimate is by the Iraq Body Project, a British research organization of scholars and journalists that is recognized as providing a reliable estimate of civilian casualties in the Iraq war.
Sources: Defense Department statistics, www.icasualties.org, wwwiraqbodycount.net, Chronicle research.
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