Saturday, May 21, 2005
More from the John Mauldin newsletter - When financial services professionals start whistling past the graveyard, it's time to sharpen your "soupline stand'n'" skills.
Hint: If I had a hammer . . .."
Thoughts from the Frontline: "Is there a bubble in financial services? While there was no consensus, my take away is that the answer is roughly no. There are several reasons. First, the P/E ratios for most financial services companies are not in nosebleed territory. While they may be high, they do not look like the NASDAQ in 2000 or California real estate today. That doesn't mean that prices can't (or won't) fall during the next recession, but simply that a drop that is characteristic of bubbles doesn't seem to be in the cards.
Secondly, many of the US financial services companies are globally diversified. Many get more than half their earnings from outside the US. These earnings show up in the US equity values and are not really part of a possible US financial services bubble. Given the leadership of the US in financial services globally it should be expected that a significant portion of our market capitalization would be in financial services. "